Denizlispor 1-2 Sebat Gençlik SK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 3rd Division 4.Grup, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
5.4
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
43%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
16%
+13.5pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
43%
Away Win
60%
-17.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Denizlispor EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebat Gençlik SK EU Bookmakers 64%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -34%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
183 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Denizlispor
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sebat Gençlik SK
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 7.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 17
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
10.11.2024 Sebat Gençlik SK Sebat Gençlik SK 7-0 HT 5-0 Denizlispor Denizlispor S3-4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Denizlispor
1-2
AWAY Sebat Gençlik SK
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Denizlispor vs Sebat Gençlik SK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sebat Gençlik SK nicked a narrow win over Denizlispor 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sebat Gençlik SK as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Denizlispor had 46% of the ball to Sebat Gençlik SK's 54%, shots finished 8-11.

What was the final score of Denizlispor vs Sebat Gençlik SK?

Denizlispor 1-2 Sebat Gençlik SK in the Turkey - 3rd Division 4.Grup on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Denizlispor vs Sebat Gençlik SK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sebat Gençlik SK win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Denizlispor 29%, draw 28%, Sebat Gençlik SK 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sebat Gençlik SK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sebat Gençlik SK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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