Milan 1-2 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 22 Apr 2024

Milan
1-2 HT 0-1
Inter
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Milan vs Inter Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.38
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
10%
7.56
X/2
20%
4.69
X/X
11%
4.64
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.72
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
46%
Away Win
46%
+0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Inter — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.08/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.08
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 84%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
18.0 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Milan vs Inter Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Inter
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.77 xG 1.57
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
370 Passes 304
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
16.05.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan ŞMP
10.05.2023 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Inter Inter ŞMP
05.02.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
18.01.2023 Milan Milan 0-3 HT 0-2 Inter Inter İTSK
03.09.2022 Milan Milan 3-2 HT 1-1 Inter Inter İTA

Milan 1-2 Inter — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-2
AWAY Inter
2.17 xG 2.05
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
445 Passes 409
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
34 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter nicked a narrow win over Milan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Milan had 52% of the ball to Inter's 48%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.17 to 2.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Milan and 2.33 for Inter.

What was the final score of Milan vs Inter?

Milan 1-2 Inter in the Italy - Serie A on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Milan 29%, draw 25%, Inter 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✓ BTTS Yes
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22 Apr 2024
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