Roma 1-3 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 22 Apr 2024

Roma
1-3 HT 0-2
Bologna
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.06
No
63%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.46
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.4
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.72
X/2
9%
6.34
X/X
17%
3.48
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
11%
5.15
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.5pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.8pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.41/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.10
-5% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
293 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.0 Crosses 15.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bologna
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.97 xG 0.84
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
319 Passes 469
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Bologna Bologna 2-0 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
14.05.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
04.01.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
01.05.2022 Roma Roma 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
01.12.2021 Bologna Bologna 1-0 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
11.04.2021 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-3
AWAY Bologna
1.99 xG 1.07
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
450 Passes 400
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roma vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna saw off Roma 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roma had 53% of the ball to Bologna's 47%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.99 to 1.07 — the balance of chances actually favoured Roma.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Roma and 0.50 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Roma vs Bologna?

Roma 1-3 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roma 43%, draw 29%, Bologna 28%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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