Khalidiya 4-2 Al Najma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Premier League, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.84
6+ Goals
7%
7.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.73 — our 30% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.2pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.8pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Khalidiya EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Najma EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
2.29/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/2.19
+53% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -32%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Khalidiya
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Najma
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
55% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2023 Al Najma Al Najma 1-1 HT 1-0 Khalidiya Khalidiya BAH
09.04.2022 Al Najma Al Najma 0-0 HT 0-0 Khalidiya Khalidiya BAH
10.01.2022 Khalidiya Khalidiya 3-0 HT 2-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
POST-MATCH Khalidiya vs Al Najma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Khalidiya saw off Al Najma 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Khalidiya as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Khalidiya had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Khalidiya and 0.33 for Al Najma.

What was the final score of Khalidiya vs Al Najma?

Khalidiya 4-2 Al Najma in the Bahrain - Premier League on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Khalidiya vs Al Najma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Khalidiya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Khalidiya 49%, draw 28%, Al Najma 23%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Khalidiya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Khalidiya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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