Atletico Goianiense 0-3 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Apr 2024

Atletico Goianiense
0-3 HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.26
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.44
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.33
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
15%
5.52
X/2
11%
5.12
X/X
14%
3.55
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.89
2/X
9%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.3pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Goianiense v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.11/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.21
-15% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
21.3 Crosses 19.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
314 Passes 366
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
09.09.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense CON CSA
02.09.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 3-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo CON CSA
03.07.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-2 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
19.09.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
06.06.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Atletico Goianiense 0-3 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
0-3
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.24 xG 1.66
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
253 Passes 561
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
8 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo swept aside Atletico Goianiense 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 35% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 65%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.24 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.50 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo?

Atletico Goianiense 0-3 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 37%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 33%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Goianiense), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
22 Apr 2024
00:30 Botafogo vs Juventude Analysis →