Botafogo 5-1 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.69
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.8
X/1
16%
3.48
X/2
7%
10.7
X/X
10%
4.47
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
8%
9.69
2/X
7%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.0pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.38/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.46
-21% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
24.7 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Juventude
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.03 xG 1.04
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
388 Passes 214
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.08.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
01.05.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
12.04.2019 Juventude Juventude 2-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
05.04.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 0-1 Juventude Juventude BRK
28.10.2007 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
26.07.2007 Botafogo Botafogo 3-1 HT 2-1 Juventude Juventude BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
5-1
AWAY Juventude
2.96 xG 0.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
440 Passes 332
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo swept aside Juventude 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 56% of the ball to Juventude's 44%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.96 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Juventude?

Botafogo 5-1 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 54%, draw 25%, Juventude 21%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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