AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Apr 2024

AZ Alkmaar II
2-1 HT 0-1
VVV-Venlo
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

AZ Alkmaar II vs VVV-Venlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.52
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
12%
6.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.43
X/2
11%
9.18
X/X
12%
6.27
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
19.95
2/2
11%
5.95
2/X
8%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.95 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.4pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.0pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.0pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar II v VVV-Venlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.61/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.63
+20% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +33%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
391 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
10.8 Crosses 16.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

AZ Alkmaar II vs VVV-Venlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
5W-1D-0L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.60 xG 1.43
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
363 Passes 328
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.07.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-2 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HAZ
03.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-3 HT 2-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
28.10.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
21.01.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
27.08.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2

AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 VVV-Venlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-1
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.47 xG 1.27
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
390 Passes 319
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II edged past VVV-Venlo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar II as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 53% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 47%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.47 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 1.17 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs VVV-Venlo?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 44%, draw 28%, VVV-Venlo 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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