Esbjerg 0-2 FC Fredericia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 22 Apr 2025

Esbjerg
0-2 HT 0-1
FC Fredericia
📅22/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.18
Over Pick
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.13
2-3
39%
1.85
4-5
25%
2.87
6+
12%
8.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.12
1/2 ✗
10%
22.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
11%
7.53
X/2
16%
4.95
X/X
12%
5.58
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
19%
2.69
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.0 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.5pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Esbjerg v FC Fredericia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 51%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.05/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.09
-38% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 79%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.2
14.8 Crosses 18.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3

Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY FC Fredericia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.90 xG 2.06
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
339 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
11.08.2024 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 4-0 HT 4-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
23.10.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
17.08.2021 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 1-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
10.05.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
21.02.2021 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 0-1 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1

Esbjerg 0-2 FC Fredericia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
0-2
AWAY FC Fredericia
1.28 xG 1.38
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
474 Passes 338
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Fredericia got the better of Esbjerg 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Fredericia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Esbjerg had 56% of the ball to FC Fredericia's 44%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.28 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Fredericia led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Esbjerg and 2.00 for FC Fredericia.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia?

Esbjerg 0-2 FC Fredericia in the Denmark 1st Division on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Fredericia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 29%, draw 26%, FC Fredericia 45%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Fredericia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Fredericia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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