Nantes 1-1 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 22 Apr 2025

Nantes
1-1 HT 0-1
PSG
📅22/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Nantes vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
58%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.59
Over Pick
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
19%
5.48
2-3
39%
2.02
4-5
27%
2.6
6+
15%
6.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
10.8
1/2
7%
19.2
1/X
5%
19.4
X/1
9%
14.3
X/2
19%
4.13
X/X
9%
7.81
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
32%
1.68
2/X
7%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+5.9pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.2pp
58%
Away Win
66%
-8.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nantes v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 70%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +16%
1.05/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.24
+3% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +5%
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
309 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 528 · 87%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.7
16.7 Crosses 14.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

Nantes vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSG
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.65 xG 2.30
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
272 Passes 711
79% Pass Accuracy 91%
17 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.11.2024 PSG PSG 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
17.02.2024 Nantes Nantes 0-2 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
09.12.2023 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
04.03.2023 PSG PSG 4-2 HT 2-2 Nantes Nantes FR1
03.09.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-3 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
31.07.2022 PSG PSG 4-0 HT 2-0 Nantes Nantes FRSK

Nantes 1-1 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
1-1
AWAY PSG
0.48 xG 1.60
25% Ball Possession 75%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
196 Passes 785
74% Pass Accuracy 93%
20 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nantes vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes and PSG shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. PSG carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Nantes had 25% of the ball to PSG's 75%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.48 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nantes and 2.67 for PSG.

What was the final score of Nantes vs PSG?

Nantes 1-1 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Nantes 21%, draw 21%, PSG 58%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →