Telstar 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 22 Apr 2026

Telstar
4-1 HT 1-1
Sparta Rotterdam
📅22/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.78
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
19%
5.11
X/2
8%
7.15
X/X
9%
5.44
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.8
2/2
14%
4.67
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.4pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 33%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -11%
2.33/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.28
+3% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +58%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.9 Crosses 19.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.55 xG 2.40
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
270 Passes 344
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.10.2025 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL
25.01.2019 Telstar Telstar 1-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL2
26.10.2018 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
19.02.2016 Telstar Telstar 1-3 HT 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL2
25.09.2015 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
19.04.2015 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2

Telstar 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
4-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.64 xG 1.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
283 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar cruised past Sparta Rotterdam 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Telstar as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Telstar had 46% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 54%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.64 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Telstar and 2.17 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Telstar 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Telstar 49%, draw 24%, Sparta Rotterdam 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Telstar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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