Sacramento Republic 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 22 May 2024

📅22/05/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.07
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+3.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 34%
-57% / -57% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
1.38/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.73
+10% / -65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
15.0 Crosses 28.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
1W-1D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 1.83
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
176 Passes 426
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABDK
12.06.2019 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 HT 2-2 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic ABDK
17.06.2015 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 HT 0-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
4-3
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.57 xG 2.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
469 Passes 502
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 50% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 50%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 1.57 to 2.14 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Jose Earthquakes.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sacramento Republic and 2.00 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Sacramento Republic 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Open Cup on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 48%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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