Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v San Jose Earthquakes — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
San Jose Earthquakes
ABDK
4-3
HT 2-2
Sacramento Republic
ABDK
2-2
HT 0-1
Sacramento Republic
ABDK
Sacramento Republic 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 50% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 50%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 1.57 to 2.14 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Jose Earthquakes.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sacramento Republic and 2.00 for San Jose Earthquakes.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Sacramento Republic 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Open Cup on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 48%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.