Criciuma 2-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Jun 2024

Criciuma
2-1 HT 1-0
Botafogo
📅22/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Criciuma vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.25
6+ Goals
10%
21.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.25 — our 24% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.33
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
14%
5.83
X/2
13%
5.01
X/X
12%
4.1
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.5
2/X
11%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Criciuma v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +22%
1.35/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.04
+14% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
– Crosses 17.3
– Yellow Cards 2.6

Criciuma vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Botafogo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
354 Passes 207
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
The Meetings
07.11.2015 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
29.07.2015 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
21.09.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
11.05.2014 Botafogo Botafogo 6-0 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
08.12.2013 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
09.09.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Criciuma 2-1 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
2-1
AWAY Botafogo
1.27 xG 0.71
38% Ball Possession 62%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
231 Passes 443
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma squeezed past Botafogo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Criciuma made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Criciuma had 38% of the ball to Botafogo's 62%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.27 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Criciuma and 2.00 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Botafogo?

Criciuma 2-1 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 35%, draw 28%, Botafogo 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Botafogo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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