Septemvri Sofia 0-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 22 Jul 2024

📅22/07/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
36%
2.88
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.51
Over 2.5
33%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.06
No
61%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
4%
X/2
15%
X/X
27%
2/1
15%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.1pp
36%
Draw
31%
+4.9pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.8pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.7pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -47% / -47%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY PFC Beroe
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-0 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
0-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PFC Beroe nicked a narrow win over Septemvri Sofia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 36% / 34%) promised a tight game; PFC Beroe found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 52% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 48%, shots finished 7-12.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs PFC Beroe?

Septemvri Sofia 0-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 31%, draw 36%, PFC Beroe 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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