Stal Rzeszow 1-0 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 22 Jul 2024

📅22/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.91
4-5 Goals
20%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.07
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.64 — our 28% vs market 16.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-7.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.9pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Rzeszow EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 56%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
2.36/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/0.95
+121% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Rzeszow
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 5-1 HT 2-1 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL1
13.08.2023 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow 2-3 HT 2-3 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
07.05.2023 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow 2-1 HT 2-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
09.10.2022 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 2-2 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Rzeszow
1-0
AWAY Arka Gdynia
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Rzeszow vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Rzeszow nicked a narrow win over Arka Gdynia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arka Gdynia at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Stal Rzeszow had 43% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 57%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arka Gdynia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Stal Rzeszow and 2.75 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Stal Rzeszow vs Arka Gdynia?

Stal Rzeszow 1-0 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - 1st Division on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Rzeszow vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stal Rzeszow 30%, draw 26%, Arka Gdynia 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arka Gdynia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →