Notts County 4-1 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Aug 2024

Notts County
4-1 HT 3-1
Grimsby Town
📅22/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Grimsby Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.54
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
14%
4.64
X/2
10%
7.99
X/X
9%
5.12
2/1
5%
22.7
2/2
12%
5.47
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Grimsby Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.51/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.30
+28% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
287 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 69%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
24.7 Crosses 18.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Notts County vs Grimsby Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Grimsby Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.79 xG 2.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
422 Passes 222
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 5-5 HT 2-2 Notts County Notts County İN2
12.08.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-2 HT 1-2 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
23.05.2022 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İBSL
05.02.2022 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İBSL
30.10.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
27.04.2019 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2

Notts County 4-1 Grimsby Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
4-1
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.84 xG 0.65
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
424 Passes 272
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County ran out comfortable winners over Grimsby Town 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Notts County had 58% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 42%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.84 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Notts County and 2.00 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Grimsby Town?

Notts County 4-1 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Notts County 43%, draw 24%, Grimsby Town 33%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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