Melgar 2-0 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 22 Aug 2024

📅22/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.6pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +8%
1.56/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.51
+8% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
22.2 Crosses 12.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.27 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
314 Passes 289
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2024 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-2 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
23.07.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
18.02.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
06.11.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-2 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
02.11.2022 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
17.07.2022 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
2-0
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.37 xG 0.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
294 Passes 306
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar beat Sporting Cristal 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Melgar had 48% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 52%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.37 to 0.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melgar and 0.67 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

Melgar 2-0 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melgar 48%, draw 29%, Sporting Cristal 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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