Sporting Cristal 1-2 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 28%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.47/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.22
-33% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 72%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.6 Crosses 17.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melgar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.06 xG 1.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
297 Passes 314
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.07.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
18.02.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
06.11.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-2 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
02.11.2022 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
17.07.2022 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
13.02.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 2-2 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
1-2
AWAY Melgar
2.32 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
349 Passes 238
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 9
34 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Cristal vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar squeezed past Sporting Cristal 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Cristal at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 58% of the ball to Melgar's 42%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.32 to 0.96 — on chances, Sporting Cristal could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.17 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Melgar?

Sporting Cristal 1-2 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 46%, draw 27%, Melgar 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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