Cienciano 2-1 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cienciano EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.38/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.29
-14% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
22.6 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cienciano
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.00 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
270 Passes 260
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2023 Cienciano Cienciano 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
02.04.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 0-0 Cienciano Cienciano PER
17.10.2022 Cienciano Cienciano 0-2 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
31.05.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 Cienciano Cienciano PER
29.10.2021 Cienciano Cienciano 1-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
17.10.2020 Cienciano Cienciano 2-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cienciano
2-1
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.71 xG 1.27
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
293 Passes 196
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cienciano vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cienciano squeezed past Alianza Lima 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Cienciano found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cienciano had 57% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 43%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.71 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cienciano and 1.17 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?

Cienciano 2-1 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cienciano win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cienciano 37%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cienciano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cienciano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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