VPS 3-2 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 22 Aug 2025

VPS
3-2 HT 1-2
KTP Kotka
📅22/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2025

VPS vs KTP Kotka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
17%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.95
X/1
19%
4.36
X/2
6%
10.0
X/X
11%
6.39
2/1 EV+ ✓
15%
19.2
2/2
7%
7.13
2/X
6%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.2 — our 15% vs market 2.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
57%
+3.7pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
17%
Away Win
21%
-3.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.3pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v KTP Kotka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.91/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.70
-7% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
23.7 Crosses 16.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

VPS vs KTP Kotka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
1W-2D-3L
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.30 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
280 Passes 238
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.04.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-2 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
25.08.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
03.06.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
04.11.2020 VPS VPS 2-4 HT 2-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
15.08.2020 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN2
18.10.2015 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN

VPS 3-2 KTP Kotka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
3-2
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.52 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
241 Passes 238
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH VPS vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS edged past KTP Kotka 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, VPS had 49% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 51%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 2.52 to 1.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VPS's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for VPS and 1.83 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of VPS vs KTP Kotka?

VPS 3-2 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 22/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split VPS 61%, draw 22%, KTP Kotka 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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