Brighton & Hove Albion 2-2 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion
2-2 HT 2-1
Nottingham Forest
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.39
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.24
X/2
10%
8.44
X/X
11%
5.0
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
14%
6.27
2/X
10%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-9.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.53/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.98
-15% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
20.9 Crosses 15.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.30
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
478 Passes 244
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
25.11.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
26.04.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
18.10.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
04.03.2017 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-0 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNCL
12.08.2016 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL

Brighton & Hove Albion 2-2 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
2-2
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.00 xG 1.42
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
475 Passes 169
88% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 14
43 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Brighton & Hove Albion at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 70% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 30%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.00 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.33 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest?

Brighton & Hove Albion 2-2 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brighton & Hove Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 41%, draw 28%, Nottingham Forest 31%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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