Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

Manchester City
2-2 HT 1-2
Arsenal
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
13%
16.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
20%
4.03
X/2
10%
9.0
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
12%
7.2
2/X
6%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.90/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.51
+5% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
453 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
35.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
16.0 Crosses 14.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Manchester City vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arsenal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.27 xG 0.70
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
425 Passes 357
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
08.10.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
06.08.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İCS
26.04.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-1 HT 2-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
15.02.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 1-3 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
27.01.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal FAK

Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
2-2
AWAY Arsenal
2.18 xG 0.67
77% Ball Possession 23%
33 Total Shots 5
11 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
644 Passes 148
91% Pass Accuracy 71%
55 Box Touches 8
24 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City and Arsenal shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Manchester City had 77% of the ball to Arsenal's 23%, shots finished 33-5, expected goals 2.18 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Manchester City and 0.67 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Arsenal?

Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 45%, draw 27%, Arsenal 28%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
22 Sep 2024
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