Odense 3-2 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.28
Draw
25%
5.28
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.47
2-3 Goals
41%
2.01
4-5 Goals
24%
2.66
6+ Goals
11%
6.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.47 — our 24% vs market 13.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.44
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
24.45
X/1
15%
3.48
X/2
4%
21.85
X/X
9%
8.79
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
8%
16.4
2/X
9%
24.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
74%
-18.1pp
25%
Draw
16%
+9.0pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Odense EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 12%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -12%
2.52/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.22
-4% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
426 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
43.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.0 Crosses 10.5
0.5 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Odense
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Roskilde
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2021 Roskilde Roskilde 1-2 HT 0-1 Odense Odense DAK
06.07.2019 Odense Odense 2-0 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Odense
3-2
AWAY Roskilde
2.02 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
392 Passes 339
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Odense vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Odense squeezed past Roskilde 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Odense as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Odense had 52% of the ball to Roskilde's 48%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.02 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Odense had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Odense and 0.50 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of Odense vs Roskilde?

Odense 3-2 Roskilde in the Denmark 1st Division on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Odense vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Odense win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Odense 56%, draw 25%, Roskilde 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Odense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Odense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
22 Sep 2024
16:00 Hvidovre vs Esbjerg Analysis →