Rijeka 3-0 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
69%
-14.3pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.4pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.57/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.72
+22% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
21.7 Crosses 11.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sibenik
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 0.92
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
409 Passes 208
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.04.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
28.01.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 1-2 HT 1-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
18.09.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
16.07.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-1 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
30.04.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 3-5 HT 2-2 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
20.02.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 4-2 HT 2-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
3-0
AWAY Sibenik
1.66 xG 0.46
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
357 Passes 369
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka ran out comfortable winners over Sibenik 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rijeka had 50% of the ball to Sibenik's 50%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.66 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rijeka and 1.00 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Sibenik?

Rijeka 3-0 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 55%, draw 25%, Sibenik 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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