Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.45
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 26% vs market 23.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.8pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -20%
1.17/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.16
+30% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.6 Crosses 18.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Osijek
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
241 Passes 319
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
27.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIRK
23.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
11.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
26.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
15.04.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
0-1
AWAY Osijek
0.51 xG 1.84
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
249 Passes 235
67% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek squeezed past Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Osijek found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 52% of the ball to Osijek's 48%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.51 to 1.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Osijek's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.50 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 36%, draw 24%, Osijek 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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