Osijek 3-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 33% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-7.7pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.6pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
1.18/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.13
-1% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.0 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
280 Passes 262
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIRK
23.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
11.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
26.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
15.04.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
04.02.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
3-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44 xG 0.30
65% Ball Possession 35%
23 Total Shots 3
12 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 4
392 Passes 160
80% Pass Accuracy 60%
32 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek got the better of Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 31% / 32% — and on the day Osijek made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osijek had 65% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 35%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 1.44 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Osijek and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Osijek 3-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Osijek 37%, draw 31%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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