Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.67 — our 24% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 45%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -52% / -52%
0.79/2.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
-44% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -61%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
266 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 7.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Osijek
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
275 Passes 293
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
11.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
26.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
15.04.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
04.02.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
01.10.2022 Osijek Osijek 4-1 HT 3-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-0
AWAY Osijek
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb squeezed past Osijek 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Lokomotiva Zagreb made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 36% of the ball to Osijek's 64%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.67 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 Osijek in the Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%, draw 28%, Osijek 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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