Slaven Belupo 4-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
35%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 33% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.9pp
35%
Draw
28%
+7.1pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.40/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.26
-19% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.5 Crosses 14.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
0W-5D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.71 xG 0.92
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 Passes 342
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
25.02.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
10.11.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.08.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.05.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.03.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
31.10.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
4-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.32 xG 1.38
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
285 Passes 290
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo ran out comfortable winners over HNK Gorica 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 35% / 27%) promised a tight game; Slaven Belupo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 50% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 50%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.32 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HNK Gorica led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Slaven Belupo and 0.83 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica?

Slaven Belupo 4-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 38%, draw 35%, HNK Gorica 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slaven Belupo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Slaven Belupo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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