HNK Gorica 1-0 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 30% vs market 29.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.25/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.19
+18% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 70%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.8 Crosses 20.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.91 xG 0.83
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
327 Passes 301
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.08.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.05.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.03.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
31.10.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
19.08.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-0
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.10 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica edged past Slaven Belupo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; HNK Gorica found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 47% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 53%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.10 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.00 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

HNK Gorica 1-0 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 39%, draw 25%, Slaven Belupo 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HNK Gorica), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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