Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.99
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.9
6+ Goals
7%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
47%
-10.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
35%
Away Win
26%
+8.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 29%
+17% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
0.86/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.25
+20% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 71%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
18.9 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Rijeka
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.77 xG 0.97
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
499 Passes 274
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
27.08.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
21.05.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
19.03.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
13.11.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 2-7 HT 0-4 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
02.09.2022 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 2-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
1-0
AWAY Rijeka
1.94 xG 0.40
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
379 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb squeezed past Rijeka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Dinamo Zagreb made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 60% of the ball to Rijeka's 40%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.94 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dinamo Zagreb's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.17 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka?

Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 37%, draw 28%, Rijeka 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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