FC Sochi 1-3 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 22 Sep 2025

FC Sochi
1-3 HT 1-0
CSKA Moskova
📅22/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2025/2026

FC Sochi vs CSKA Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
48%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.06
2-3 Goals
34%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 33% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.01
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
7%
7.67
X/2
16%
4.5
X/X
13%
4.52
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.65
2/X
9%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
25%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
48%
Away Win
48%
+0.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Sochi v CSKA Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.46/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.16
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +68%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
16.5 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

FC Sochi vs CSKA Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Sochi
1W-3D-2L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.06 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
345 Passes 328
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2024 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-2 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
20.09.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUK
30.08.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
13.08.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 3-1 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
05.03.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
28.09.2022 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUK

FC Sochi 1-3 CSKA Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Sochi
1-3
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.18 xG 3.52
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 5
243 Passes 449
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Sochi vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova beat FC Sochi 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CSKA Moskova as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, FC Sochi had 39% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 61%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.18 to 3.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Sochi and 1.33 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of FC Sochi vs CSKA Moskova?

FC Sochi 1-3 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Sochi vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated an CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FC Sochi 22%, draw 29%, CSKA Moskova 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moskova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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