Mebrat Hayl 1-0 Bahardar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.13
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
1.52
Over
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No Pick
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
47%
4-5
16%
6+
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
23%
Home Win
21%
+2.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-4.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.2pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mebrat Hayl The Market 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahardar The Market 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -29%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mebrat Hayl
1-0
AWAY Bahardar
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mebrat Hayl vs Bahardar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mebrat Hayl edged past Bahardar 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bahardar at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Mebrat Hayl had 44% of the ball to Bahardar's 56%, shots finished 8-19.

What was the final score of Mebrat Hayl vs Bahardar?

Mebrat Hayl 1-0 Bahardar in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mebrat Hayl vs Bahardar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bahardar win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mebrat Hayl 23%, draw 29%, Bahardar 48%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bahardar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahardar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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