Pau 1-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 22 Oct 2024

Pau
1-1 HT 1-0
Bastia
📅22/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.57
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.58
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
9%
4.67
X/2
12%
6.53
X/X
14%
3.87
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
10%
5.11
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.60/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.32
+25% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
19.4 Crosses 16.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bastia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.13 xG 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
319 Passes 311
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2024 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
26.09.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-4 HT 0-1 Pau Pau FR2
20.05.2023 Pau Pau 2-6 HT 1-2 Bastia Bastia FR2
13.01.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
05.02.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
21.08.2021 Pau Pau 2-0 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-1
AWAY Bastia
0.50 xG 0.97
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
257 Passes 455
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau and Bastia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Pau at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pau had 39% of the ball to Bastia's 61%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.50 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pau and 1.83 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Pau vs Bastia?

Pau 1-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pau 42%, draw 30%, Bastia 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pau), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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