Pau vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pau v Bastia — Team-Based Signals
Pau vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-4
HT 0-1
Pau
FR2
2-6
HT 1-2
Bastia
FR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Pau
FR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Pau
FR2
2-0
HT 1-0
Bastia
FR2
Pau 1-1 Bastia — Actual Match Statistics
Pau and Bastia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Pau at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Pau had 39% of the ball to Bastia's 61%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.50 to 0.97.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pau and 1.83 for Bastia.
What was the final score of Pau vs Bastia?
Pau 1-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pau vs Bastia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pau 42%, draw 30%, Bastia 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pau), BTTS No went the other way.