Pau vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pau v Bastia — Team-Based Signals
Pau vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-4
HT 0-1
Pau
FR2
2-6
HT 1-2
Bastia
FR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Pau
FR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Pau
FR2
2-0
HT 1-0
Bastia
FR2
Pau 1-2 Bastia — Actual Match Statistics
Bastia squeezed past Pau 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Pau at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Pau had 54% of the ball to Bastia's 46%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.21 to 1.79 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bastia's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Pau and 1.80 for Bastia.
What was the final score of Pau vs Bastia?
Pau 1-2 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pau vs Bastia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Pau 52%, draw 21%, Bastia 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.