Dunkerque 2-2 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 10 May 2024

Dunkerque
2-2 HT 0-1
Caen
📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Dunkerque vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 30% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.49
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
13%
7.35
X/2
17%
4.4
X/X
15%
4.72
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.68
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-9.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunkerque v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 51%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.89/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.84
-21% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
305 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.9 Crosses 17.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.2

Dunkerque vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Caen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.98 xG 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
383 Passes 286
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
02.04.2022 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
23.10.2021 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
20.04.2021 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
18.12.2020 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-3 HT 1-2 Caen Caen FR2

Dunkerque 2-2 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
2-2
AWAY Caen
1.52 xG 1.64
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
423 Passes 319
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque and Caen couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dunkerque had 56% of the ball to Caen's 44%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.52 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dunkerque and 1.60 for Caen.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Caen?

Dunkerque 2-2 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 34%, draw 28%, Caen 38%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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