Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.08
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
14%
5.07
X/2
10%
6.71
X/X
15%
4.8
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.56
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
1.36/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.42
-5% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
20.5 Crosses 22.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2022 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1-2
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.99 xG 2.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
386 Passes 275
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 35
24 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin squeezed past Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Zaglebie Lubin at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 57% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 43%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 0.99 to 2.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Motor Lublin's control.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?

Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zaglebie Lubin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 43%, draw 28%, Motor Lublin 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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