Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Slask Wroclaw — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 22 Nov 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-2 HT 1-1
Slask Wroclaw
📅22/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.75
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.06
X/2
8%
9.54
X/X
9%
5.33
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
7%
7.22
2/X
7%
15.45
Value flag · X/1 at 4.06 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Slask Wroclaw — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Slask Wroclaw EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
1.90/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.34
+10% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
22.0 Crosses 14.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Slask Wroclaw
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 0.99
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
374 Passes 287
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
08.03.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 HT 3-0 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw POL
26.09.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 0-0 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw POLK
03.09.2023 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw 2-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
05.05.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 0-1 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw POL
23.10.2022 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw 2-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
30.04.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 0-0 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Slask Wroclaw — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-2
AWAY Slask Wroclaw
0.72 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 5
395 Passes 339
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok and Slask Wroclaw couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Jagiellonia Bialystok at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 53% of the ball to Slask Wroclaw's 47%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.72 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.17 for Slask Wroclaw.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Slask Wroclaw in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 55%, draw 24%, Slask Wroclaw 21%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
22 Nov 2024
20:00 Zaglebie Lubin vs Motor Lublin Analysis →