Thun 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 22 Nov 2025

Thun
0 - 1 HT 0 - 0
Lugano
📅22/11/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Thun vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.23
Over Pick
63%
1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.48
No
38%
2.45
Total Goals
0-1
17%
4.57
2-3
42%
1.91
4-5
30%
2.82
6+
11%
7.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.46
1/2
3%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
13%
5.96
X/2
12%
6.3
X/X
14%
5.48
2/1 ✗
3%
24.45
2/2
21%
3.77
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 3% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Thun v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Thun The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano The Market 39%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.82 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.69
1.51 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.60
Strong Attack Strength Average
Strong Defense Strength Average
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
22 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3

Thun vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.13 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
346 Passes 335
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.07.2025 Lugano Lugano 1-2 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV
10.02.2022 Thun Thun 3-4 HT 1-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
15.07.2020 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
09.02.2020 Thun Thun 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
24.11.2019 Thun Thun 0-3 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.07.2019 Lugano Lugano 0-0 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV

Thun 0-1 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
0 - 1
AWAY Lugano
1.36 xG 0.93
41% Ball Possession 59%
23 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
245 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
36 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Thun vs Lugano
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lugano squeezed past Thun 1-0 on their travels. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (62%) never looked like landing.

Under the surface, Thun had 41% of the ball to Lugano's 59%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 1.36 to 0.93 — on chances, Thun could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Thun and 1.83 for Lugano.

Thun vs Lugano Result & Final Score

Thun 0 - 1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Thun vs Lugano Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Thun 39%, draw 25%, Lugano 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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