Lugano 1-2 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 27 Jul 2025

Lugano
1-2 HT 1-0
Thun
📅27/07/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Lugano vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.58
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.68
X/2
10%
7.96
X/X
15%
5.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.9
2/2
9%
5.83
2/X
7%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.5pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lugano v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -11%
1.58/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.66
-7% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
18.6 Crosses 17.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lugano vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Thun
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 375
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.02.2022 Thun Thun 3-4 HT 1-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
15.07.2020 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
09.02.2020 Thun Thun 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
24.11.2019 Thun Thun 0-3 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.07.2019 Lugano Lugano 0-0 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
11.05.2019 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV

Lugano 1-2 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1-2
AWAY Thun
1.01 xG 1.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
278 Passes 248
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 39
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun nicked a narrow win over Lugano 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lugano had 54% of the ball to Thun's 46%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.01 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lugano and 1.33 for Thun.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Thun?

Lugano 1-2 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lugano 46%, draw 30%, Thun 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
27 Jul 2025
17:00 Lausanne Sports vs Winterthur Analysis →