Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 Saint Eloi Lupopo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.18
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
7%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
3.06
No
51%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.88
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.26
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
6%
35.0
X/1
24%
3.49
X/2
3%
35.0
X/X
12%
9.2
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
2%
35.0
2/X
3%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
80%
-9.2pp
22%
Draw
14%
+7.3pp
7%
Away Win
6%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
28%
+20.4pp
51%
BTTS No
72%
-20.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint Eloi Lupopo EU Bookmakers 8%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.97/0.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
-27% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -25%
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
502 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 73%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.4 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
3-1
AWAY Saint Eloi Lupopo
2.45 xG 0.49
81% Ball Possession 19%
21 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
646 Passes 78
93% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 9
8 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Saint Eloi Lupopo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Saint Eloi Lupopo 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 81% of the ball to Saint Eloi Lupopo's 19%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.45 to 0.49.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Saint Eloi Lupopo?

Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 Saint Eloi Lupopo in the CAF Champions League on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Saint Eloi Lupopo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 71%, draw 22%, Saint Eloi Lupopo 7%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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