Erbil 2-1 Al Gharraf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
44%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.54
Over 2.5
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.03
No
64%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
40%
-10.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.3pp
44%
Away Win
30%
+13.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.4pp
64%
BTTS No
55%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erbil EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharraf EU Bookmakers 34%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-29% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Erbil vs Al Gharraf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erbil squeezed past Al Gharraf 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Al Gharraf at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Erbil vs Al Gharraf?

Erbil 2-1 Al Gharraf in the Iraq - Premier League on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erbil vs Al Gharraf?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharraf win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Erbil 30%, draw 26%, Al Gharraf 44%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharraf) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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