Sham Shui Po 2-3 Citizen AA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.78
Draw
30%
5.15
Away
52%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
10%
1/X
14%
X/1
7%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+7.7pp
30%
Draw
16%
+13.4pp
53%
Away Win
74%
-20.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.1pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sham Shui Po EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 78%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.82
-15% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -39%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 527 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sham Shui Po
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Citizen AA
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 2
07.11.2021 Citizen AA Citizen AA 1-4 HT 1-4 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sham Shui Po
2-3
AWAY Citizen AA
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sham Shui Po vs Citizen AA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA edged past Sham Shui Po 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Citizen AA as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Sham Shui Po had 45% of the ball to Citizen AA's 55%, shots finished 13-12.

What was the final score of Sham Shui Po vs Citizen AA?

Sham Shui Po 2-3 Citizen AA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sham Shui Po vs Citizen AA?

Before kick-off our model rated an Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sham Shui Po 18%, draw 30%, Citizen AA 53%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Citizen AA), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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