Keçiörengücü 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.89
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 28% vs market 20.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.88
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.94
X/2
15%
5.44
X/X
9%
5.06
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
14%
3.43
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.19/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.20
+25% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.0 Crosses 17.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.03 xG 0.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 10
312 Passes 270
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.07.2020 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
22.12.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
17.12.2016 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 1-2 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü S2-B
17.01.2016 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-1 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük S2-K
06.09.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 HT 0-2 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü S2-K
31.01.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-2 HT 0-1 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü S2-B
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
0-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.39 xG 1.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
317 Passes 264
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük nicked a narrow win over Keçiörengücü 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Fatih Karagümrük made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 55% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 45%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.39 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keçiörengücü had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Keçiörengücü and 0.83 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Keçiörengücü 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 37%, draw 27%, Fatih Karagümrük 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Keçiörengücü) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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