Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 23 Jan 2024

Celta Vigo
1-2 HT 0-1
Real Sociedad
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2023/2024

Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.27
No
57%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
6.23
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.4
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
16.2
X/1
12%
7.08
X/2
16%
4.03
X/X
11%
3.46
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.92
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.1pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.5pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 49%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.01/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/0.79
-3% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
5.0 Crosses 13.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Real Sociedad
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.85 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
344 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
19.08.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
18.02.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
16.10.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 1-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
08.01.2022 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.10.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1

Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Sociedad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
1-2
AWAY Real Sociedad
0.37 xG 1.96
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
244 Passes 301
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad squeezed past Celta Vigo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Sociedad as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 46% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 54%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.37 to 1.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Sociedad's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Sociedad led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.33 for Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?

Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 31%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Sociedad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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