Winterthur 3-3 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.38
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 28% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.48
1/2
6%
23.45
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
8%
6.76
X/2
12%
4.94
X/X
13%
5.12
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
22%
2.88
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.3pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +16%
1.19/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.05
-24% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 77%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
15.7 Crosses 21.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Servette
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 1.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
281 Passes 395
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2023 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
20.05.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
26.02.2023 Servette Servette 1-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
15.02.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-2 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
06.08.2022 Servette Servette 1-0 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
07.05.2014 Winterthur Winterthur 1-2 HT 1-2 Servette Servette İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
3-3
AWAY Servette
1.03 xG 1.77
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
504 Passes 251
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur and Servette shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Servette at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Winterthur had 63% of the ball to Servette's 37%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.03 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Winterthur and 1.50 for Servette.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Servette?

Winterthur 3-3 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated an Servette win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 31%, draw 28%, Servette 41%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Servette) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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