23/01/2024
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Yverdon vs Luzern Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24
— our 24% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
Value flag · X/X at 5.29
— our 21% vs market 14.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
30%
Draw
25%
35%
Away Win
44%
52%
Under 2.5
42%
48%
Over 2.5
58%
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
49%
BTTS No
40%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Yverdon v Luzern — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Yverdon
EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY
Luzern
EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% /
+5%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+11% /
+17%
1.37/1.46
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.94/1.09
+0%
/
-33%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+7%
/
+18%
47%
Ball Possession
53%
12
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
281 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
362 · 77%
17.5
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.7
15.1
Crosses
20.4
2.6
Yellow Cards
2.5
Yverdon vs Luzern Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Yverdon
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Luzern
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
0.98
xG
2.10
50%
Ball Possession
50%
10
Total Shots
25
5
Shots on Target
5
3
Corners
4
283
Passes
286
76%
Pass Accuracy
77%
18
Box Touches
32
11
Crosses
15
2
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
22.10.2023
Luzern
2-1
HT 1-0
Yverdon
İSV
2-1
HT 1-0
Yverdon
İSV
Yverdon 2-1 Luzern — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Yverdon
2-1
AWAY
Luzern
2.07
xG
1.80
44%
Ball Possession
56%
18
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
3
4
Corners
4
317
Passes
399
85%
Pass Accuracy
86%
18
Box Touches
29
15
Crosses
31
1
Yellow Cards
2
POST-MATCH
Yverdon vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Yverdon squeezed past Luzern 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Yverdon made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Yverdon had 44% of the ball to Luzern's 56%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.07 to 1.80.
What was the final score of Yverdon vs Luzern?
Yverdon 2-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Yverdon vs Luzern?
Before kick-off our model rated a Yverdon win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Yverdon 35%, draw 30%, Luzern 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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İSV
More Switzerland - Super League
23 Jan 2024