Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 23 Jan 2024

Newcastle Jets
3-1 HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.41
No
38%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.84
2-3 Goals
37%
2.03
4-5 Goals
31%
2.54
6+ Goals
14%
5.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.64
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.11
X/2
11%
7.4
X/X
12%
5.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.9
2/2
13%
4.42
2/X
8%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
67%
-4.8pp
38%
BTTS No
33%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.89/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.60
-2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
18.9 Crosses 18.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.64
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
429 Passes 329
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.04.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
27.01.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
16.12.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
03.04.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
03.02.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
3-1
AWAY Brisbane Roar
3.03 xG 1.23
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
438 Passes 401
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets beat Brisbane Roar 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Newcastle Jets as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 53% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 47%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 3.03 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.67 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar?

Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 42%, draw 27%, Brisbane Roar 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle Jets), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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