Cerro 1-2 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.64
Over
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
36%
4-5
22%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
33%
Home Win
21%
+11.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
41%
Away Win
53%
-11.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro The Market 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle The Market 57%
+68% / +68% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-19% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
1-2
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past Cerro 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro had 46% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 54%, shots finished 5-5.

What was the final score of Cerro vs Independiente Del Valle?

Cerro 1-2 Independiente Del Valle in the Friendlies on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cerro 33%, draw 26%, Independiente Del Valle 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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