Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 23 Feb 2024

Neuchatel Xamax
4-0 HT 1-0
Thun
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 30% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Neuchatel Xamax v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +2%
2.85/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.22
+16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
21.4 Crosses 18.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Thun
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.80 xG 1.32
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
262 Passes 391
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Thun Thun 1-1 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
11.08.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
28.04.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
05.02.2023 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
28.10.2022 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 2-2 HT 0-1 Thun Thun İSV2
30.09.2022 Thun Thun 2-1 HT 1-1 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2

Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
4-0
AWAY Thun
3.07 xG 1.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
364 Passes 459
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
29 Box Touches 40
18 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neuchatel Xamax ran out comfortable winners over Thun 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Neuchatel Xamax found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Neuchatel Xamax had 46% of the ball to Thun's 54%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 3.07 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Neuchatel Xamax and 1.17 for Thun.

What was the final score of Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun?

Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neuchatel Xamax win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Neuchatel Xamax 40%, draw 28%, Thun 32%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) ✗ Under 2.5
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