GIANA Erminio 2-1 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.68
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.38
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 32% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-6.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME GIANA Erminio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 33%
-11% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.03/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.42
-16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME GIANA Erminio
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Lumezzane
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
21.10.2023 Lumezzane Lumezzane 1-3 HT 0-2 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
06.09.2015 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 2-1 HT 0-0 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME GIANA Erminio
2-1
AWAY Lumezzane
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH GIANA Erminio vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

GIANA Erminio squeezed past Lumezzane 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 35% — and on the day GIANA Erminio made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, GIANA Erminio had 56% of the ball to Lumezzane's 44%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, GIANA Erminio had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for GIANA Erminio and 1.00 for Lumezzane.

What was the final score of GIANA Erminio vs Lumezzane?

GIANA Erminio 2-1 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for GIANA Erminio vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a GIANA Erminio win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split GIANA Erminio 36%, draw 30%, Lumezzane 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (GIANA Erminio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (GIANA Erminio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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