Holstein Kiel 3-4 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 23 Feb 2024

Holstein Kiel
3-4 HT 0-3
St. Pauli
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
4.11
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
13.1
X/1
9%
5.95
X/2
15%
5.17
X/X
7%
4.6
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
19%
3.37
2/X
7%
13.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.1 — our 9% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +13%
1.68/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.43
+17% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 75%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
20.3 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
2W-1D-3L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.71 xG 0.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 Passes 366
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.09.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 5-1 HT 3-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
19.05.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
08.11.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
17.12.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-0 HT 3-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
25.07.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
07.05.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2

Holstein Kiel 3-4 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
3-4
AWAY St. Pauli
1.15 xG 1.17
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
586 Passes 343
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli nicked a narrow win over Holstein Kiel 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; St. Pauli found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 61% of the ball to St. Pauli's 39%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.15 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.00 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?

Holstein Kiel 3-4 St. Pauli in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 37%, draw 24%, St. Pauli 39%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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